In 2012, collingwoodfc.com.au has again enlisted the help of David Natoli, aka DaVe86, who has shot to internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews. 

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

The ANZAC Day clash between Collingwood and Essendon is the biggest home and away game of the year. This year, an expected crowd of around 90,000 will pack into the MCG to watch the traditional battle.

On a day when we pay tribute to our war heroes, the game between Collingwood and Essendon feels very much like a battle of the last man standing. With only a four-day turn-around between matches, both sides are experiencing numerous injury concerns.

Despite these issues, both sides had impressive victories in round four and will lift for the occasion this Wednesday. Essendon is undefeated after four rounds and caused a massive upset against the red hot Carlton. It was a game no one expected the Bombers to win, yet they did it comfortably in the end.

Collingwood’s victory against Port Adelaide was also impressive considering it entered the game with nine of its senior players out injured and numerous others battling form or match fitness issues. It was clear throughout the game that the Magpies are still a long way from their best, however it was heartening to see the side play with greater aggression and intensity.

Recent History

Collingwood has won its last five matches against Essendon by an average of 60 points. The names Travis Cloke, Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury are very prominent amongst the best in each of these matches. When these sides last met in round nineteen last year, Alex Fasolo also made a strong impression with five goals.

At the Selection Table

All the focus will shift to selection today as both sides attempt to field the strongest possible side. There will be a number of very sore players with such a short break between games.

Starting with Collingwood, there is some good news with Alan Didak and Nathan Brown big chances to play. Didak has been impressive in the VFL, while Brown now has three VFL matches under his belt in his return from a knee reconstruction. His presence down back would be crucial with injuries to Tarrant and Reid.

Missing out of potentially Collingwood’s best side will be Dale Thomas, Luke Ball, Ben Reid, Chris Tarrant, Andrew Krakouer, Brent Macaffer and Heath Shaw. Luke Rounds and Cameron Wood could come into contention if other players have not pulled up well from round four. Wood may be called upon to assist with Bellchambers and Ryder in the ruck.

Essendon’s injury list is riddled with soft tissue injuries, as key forward Michael Hurley has now been added to that list. Also unavailable for the match are David Hille, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Jason Winderlich, David Myers, Mark McVeigh and Brent Prismall. Courtney Dempsey and Cale Hooker also remain on the injury list but are in strong contention to return this week. Others in contention are Travis Colyer, Kyle Reimers, Jake Carlisle, Henry Slattery and rookie Mark Baguley.

I would expect Essendon and Collingwood to each make up to five changes.

Player Analysis

Collingwood
Harry O’Brien - Following Collingwood’s 60 points loss to Carlton in round three, there was no player on Collingwood’s list under more pressure than Harry. His response against Port Adelaide was enormous. He got off the leash against Port in defence where he had 29 disposals and his confidence grew throughout the game. By the end of the game he had his strut back. James Hird has publicly vowed he will not allow Harry O’Brien to roam free on ANZAC Day. It may be up to someone like Alwyn Davey or Jetta to ensure O’Brien is made accountable.

Ben Sinclair - I was sceptical about Sinclair’s spot in the side leading into the Port Adelaide game, but he really impressed me last round. His statistics were nothing special, but I thought his forward pressure was important and he is slowly adapting to the speed of the game. His needs to start finishing his shots on goal. However, his game against Port Adelaide was a step in the right direction and he should have another chance on ANZAC Day to impress.

Sharrod Wellingham - I thought he highlighted in round four how crucial he is to the side. Without Thomas and Shaw, Wellingham became one the only midfielders with genuine speed and x-factor. He is still working himself into peak form following a delayed start to the year, but his 19 disposals and two goals was very important. His marking looks to have improved as well. With so many players still out of the side, Wellingham needs to step up and become a leader to help ease the burden on Swan and Pendlebury.

Special Mentions
This week, I give special mentions to Dayne Beams, Steele Sidebottom and Lachlan Keeffe. In the absence of Luke Ball, Beams and Sidebottom needed to lift to fill the void in the middle. Both spent much more time on the ball and were very good.

I thought Lachlan Keeffe had his breakout game against Port Adelaide. He was the only defender with height and was forced to rotate between Stewart, Schulz, Westhoff and Butcher. He outmarked Stewart on a number of occasions and was rarely beaten all match. Port Adelaide’s talls were a huge factor leading into the game, but Keeffe kept them all on a leash. I was very impressed with his disposal as well.

Essendon
Brent Stanton - This time last year, Bombers fans were booing Stanton from the field following a slow start to the year. This year, he may well be at the front of the Brownlow race following an incredible start to the year. He is averaging 29 disposals a game, and over a goal a game. He has also lifted his tackling pressure with an average of five per game. He is one of the hardest working players going around and has a great ability to run his opponents off their feet. He is not getting the recognition he deserves from the football public, but he does get his moment in the spotlight on ANZAC Day. It will be interesting to see if Collingwood look to use a designated tagger against him. It might be a role for a player like Luke Rounds or Sharrod Wellingham.

Jobe Watson - The skipper could be the difference on ANZAC Day. Collingwood is still far from its best, yet was dominant in the centre last round. If Watson can play a similar game to what he did against Carlton, the Bombers will be able to take the ascendency in the middle. Without Luke Ball, Watson is likely to square off against Dayne Beams around stoppages and should fancy himself in this battle. He should be Collingwood’s number one focus on ANZAC Day.

Patrick Ryder - It is a massive year for Ryder who has promised so much for so long but has always remained far too inconsistent. His start to 2012 however has been huge, rotating between full forward and ruck. His stats will make for pleasing reading for Bombers fans as he is averaging 16 disposals, one goal, six marks and 27 hitouts a game. He will be a handful in the ruck for Darren Jolly who has lost a yard of pace. Lachlan Keeffe will be likely to get the job on him when he pushes forward, but I believe it is his ruck work that will prove the difference. If he and Tom Bellchambers are able to palm the ball down cleanly in Jobe Watson’s area, the Magpies will be on the back-foot all game.

The Wrap Up
Essendon should really fancy themselves as Collingwood this ANZAC Day. However, its injury list is now matching Collingwood’s and the game has really evened up. I think Jobe Watson is the decisive factor in the middle. If he can dominate as he did last week, Collingwood’s defence will be immediately under the pump.

The other issue for Collingwood is Essendon’s foot speed. The Pies have looked the most vulnerable against quicker sides this year. The Pies pressure improved last week and will need to do the same against Essendon to prevent their quick ball movement and pace.

Despite the outs, Collingwood’s class through the midfield was still prominent against Port Adelaide. However it is a step up in terms of quality of opposition this week and the depth in the midfield will be tested again. Swan and Pendlebury returned to form last week and will be vital again.

My tip for the ANZAC Day Medal is Brent Stanton as I don’t think the Pies will be able to shut him down. If Collingwood wins, it could be Dane Swan who wins the Medal as the Bombers will likely tag Pendlebury.

A wet and chilly day is predicted on Wednesday, but it should be a cracking match.

By David Natoli

Aka DaVe86