In 2012, collingwoodfc.com.au has again enlisted the help of David Natoli, aka DaVe86, who has shot to internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews. 

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

No saying is more accurate than the one that tells us that a week is a long time in football. Leading into round 15, Collingwood was the in form team in the competition and the clear top of the ladder side. One terrible loss later and the Magpies are now clinging to a top four position and have a very tough draw ahead.

However, round 16 is an opportunity to redeem the situation against the reigning premier, Geelong, at the MCG on Saturday night. The Cats are still a long way from their absolute best and are yet to secure a top eight position. They struggled against Gold Coast last week and have a lot of young players in the side still finding their way.

When these sides last met in round eight, it was Collingwood who took some minor revenge for its Grand Final defeat of 2011 with a 12 point win. These are two very different sides from those that dominated the 2011 season. Both Geelong and Collingwood have suffered a number of injuries and have been unable to get a full strength line-up onto the park.

Although Geelong sits comfortably in seventh position at this stage, a top eight position is far from guaranteed. Collingwood has a tough draw, but Geelong’s is arguably even harder. Its next eight games are Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide, Hawthorn, West Coast, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Sydney. Of most concern is the fact that the sides sitting outside the top eight have easier draws to finish the season. However, Geelong is the one side in the competition that can flick the switch and return to its devastating best. As a Collingwood supporter, I know never to write off the Cats.

The stakes are very high on Saturday night. Collingwood could find itself out of the top four. The loss to Carlton has left the Magpies seemingly vulnerable. The injury curse is taking its toll. Further, the Pies will face Hawthorn the week after and could find themselves out of the top six quickly if they lose a few on the trot. As bad as the side played against Carlton, a one-off loss can be excused as long as it is rectified quickly. With such an even competition between the top six sides, every match from here on is a virtual eight point match.

At the Selection Table
Both sides have experienced a major blow leading into this game. Jimmy Bartel and Sharrod Wellingham were suspended for uncharacteristic incidents last round.

For the Magpies, Marley Williams injured his shoulder and will miss the remainder of the season.

On the flip side, Chris Tarrant kicked four goals in the VFL playing up forward and could be the answer to Collingwood’s goal kicking struggles of last week. Scott Pendlebury is another who may return and add the missing link in the midfield.

Turning the focus back to Geelong, and Steve Johnson and Mitch Duncan will be tested and look likely to return.

But the news is not so good for James Podsiadly and David Wojcinski who will miss at least another week with an ankle and hamstring injury respectively. Daniel Menzel and Travis Varcoe are long terms injuries and also remain out of the side.

Focus on Collingwood
As good as Collingwood was leading into the Carlton game winning ten games in a row, it has struggled to kick goals in the last three rounds. The Magpies only had four goal-kickers in the win against West Coast, while it was unable to put Fremantle away in round fourteen. Last week against Carlton, Collingwood could only manage eight goals. This is most unlike the Magpies who pride themselves on having so many different avenues to goal.

Steele Sidebottom - Steele was one of Collingwood’s best last week in a disappointing loss picking up 26 disposals and kicking a goal. You get the impression that he will be one of the main beneficiaries of Scott Pendlebury returning as it will give him more freedom. He has really had a breakout year, but needs to maintain his form in the run home to finals, as he is so important. He needs to continue to kick goals as well without Wellingham in the side.

Nick Maxwell - I think Nick has had a terrific year, but was assigned an unusual opponent last week in Nick Duigan who drew the football and kicked three goals. Geelong may use a similar tactic with Harry Taylor who has been pinch-hitting up forward a lot this year. Geelong has a much more conventional forward line than Carlton, and I think Nick will appreciate the predictability. However, he does need to keep a closer eye on his opponent as opposition midfields know Maxwell can peel off to assist his team-mates.

Dayne Beams - In the past fortnight, Beams has had to deal with two of the most difficult taggers in the competition in Ryan Crowley and Andrew Carrazzo. With Pendlebury returning, the emphasis on Beams may be reduced. He should continue to receive tags from now on and he will get better at handling them. This week he is likely to face Taylor Hunt who did a good job on Gary Ablett Jnr last week but faded in the last quarter.

Focus on Geelong
The Achilles heel of the Cats all year has been contested footy. With Bartel out of the side, this is one area Collingwood may be able to get on top in.

Nonetheless, with players like James Kelly, Joel Selwood, Paul Chapman and Joel Corey in the midfield, you can never take the Cats lightly. I am at a loss to explain why Geelong has been down in the contested football all year, but it needs to continue to improve on this area if it is to match the top sides of the competition in the next two months. Too much reliance is falling on the senior players and there needs to be a greater output from the second tier.

Joel Selwood - With Jimmy Bartel out of the side, and with such concerns over the contested footy, shutting down Selwood is crucial. This is easier said than done because Selwood has really led from the front in his first year as skipper and really stood up last week against Gold Coast. He is likely to square off against Dayne Beams in the midfield and looms as the key to Geelong’s chances on Friday night.

Paul Chapman - Chapman is the other senior player in the side really holding up the Cats at the moment. He kicked four goals and had 28 disposals at a time when Gold Coast was really challenging. The veteran may not be in the sort of form we have become accustomed to in recent years, but he is still one of the most damaging players in the competition and always does something special with the ball in hand.

Tom Hawkins - Hawkins has had a solid year following his breakthrough finals series in 2011, but has stagnated a bit over the last month or so. However, his game against Gold Coast was really solid and his goal kicking was very accurate. He enjoys playing Collingwood and will likely face Ben Reid as an opponent who he had the better of in last year’s Grand Final.

The Wrap Up
This will undoubtedly be another cracking match that will have a large bearing on the make-up of the ladder. Geelong is far from its best, but should never be written off, while Collingwood will be looking to bounce back from a lacklustre effort against Carlton.

I think Collingwood has played the better footy so far in 2012 and should go in as favourites. It will be a close game all the way.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86