In 2013, collingwoodfc.com.au has again enlisted the help of David Natoli, aka DaVe86, who has shot to Internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

Round 16 commences on Friday night at the MCG with Collingwood facing Adelaide in a very important match for the fortunes of both side’s seasons.

Collingwood is full of confidence after a 41 point win against arch enemy Carlton. The Magpies sit comfortably in the seventh position on the ladder. In the months to come, Collingwood has a real chance to press for a top four position. Nonetheless, a loss to Adelaide this round could mean that the Magpies will only remain in the top eight by one game. Despite the big win last round, Collingwood has generally been inconsistent this year, and one slip up could leave the Magpies with a battle to hold onto a finals berth.

Adelaide on the other hand is languishing in twelfth spot, a full two games behind eighth placed Port Adelaide and three games behind Collingwood. This is perhaps Adelaide’s last chance to turn its season around and put itself back in finals contention. The Crows looked sure things last round, holding a 13-point lead deep in the final quarter. But a late fight back by the Eagles and a last minute goal to Josh Kennedy handed earned them a crucial six-point win.

Overall it has been a roller coaster season to date for both sides considering they both finished in the top four last season. Both sides have had to deal with injuries and pre-season departures, but they are highly talented and can challenge any side on their day.

Recent History
It has been well over a year since these sides last met, with the last clash back in round nine, 2012. In this match, it was an undermanned Collingwood side that caused a minor upset winning by 26 points.

Dayne Beams announced himself as a genuine A-grade player, picking up 36 disposals and kicking two crucial goals. He was rewarded with the three Brownlow votes. His mate Steele Sidebottom polled the two votes with 31 disposals and two goals, while Scott Pendlebury polled one vote with 29 disposals and one goal. Dane Swan did not play, nor did Nathan Brown or Ben Reid. The defence was further tested when Lachlan Keeffe injured his knee. The injury kept him out of the game for over a year.

Adelaide led by one goal at three quarter time yet was unable to kick a goal in the final quarter. The Crows were only able to kick six goals for the entire game, with Matthew Jaensch one of the only bright sparks for the side with 28 disposals. Patrick Dangerfield was well held by Dale Thomas who had 29 disposals of his own.

At the Selection Table
Collingwood looks set to welcome back Dayne Beams for his first game of the season. Beams was fantastic in his return to VFL last round, picking up 28 disposals and kicking two goals. His return will be critical to the side considering he was adjudged best on ground when these sides last faced off. It looms as the first time Collingwood will have had the combination of Beams, Ball, Swan and Pendlebury available in over a year.

Coach Nathan Buckley has a few other dilemmas this round. After Ben Reid’s impressive four goal game as a forward, the temptation will be to promote Lachlan Keeffe from the VFL to fill the hole down back to allow Reid to stay forward. If Keeffe is selected, it will be his first senior game since injuring his knee against Adelaide last season. Keeffe has had a solid month of VFL footy and is edging closer to his return. But Buckley will be conscious of going in too tall against the talented Adelaide midfield.

Others that were impressive in the VFL were Jordan Russell, Martin Clarke, Jackson Paine, Brodie Grundy and Kyle Martin. In a year dogged by injuries, Buckley will be pleased to have such depth playing well at VFL level. Quentin Lynch may also push for a recall after missing last round with injury. His spot will not be assured with Reid and Jarrod Witts performing well in the forward line last week. Harry O’Brien will again be watching on from the sidelines.

Turning the focus onto Adelaide, and coach Brenton Sanderson will have to make at least two forced changes this round with Shaun McKernan out through suspension and Aiden Riley out for the season with a broken leg.

McKernan’s injury could open the door for Richmond ruck discard Angus Graham, while Jared Petrenko will also push for senior selection after he returned to the SANFL last week. Richard Tambling, Luke Thompson and Jarryd Lyons have also shown form at SANFL level and Mitchell Grigg is closing in on a debut.

Season ending injuries to Brent Reilly and Taylor Walker has made the job even more difficult for the Crows in recent weeks.

Focus on Collingwood
Last round, Collingwood played its most impressive game this year since the Geelong win. After initially starting slow, the Magpie midfield really lifted its rating and played with more freedom than I have seen in some time. Importantly, the team looked quick and had direction going forward. Ben Sinclair in particular was terrific providing run out of defence whilst also locking down on an opponent.

With Reid playing an important foil for Travis Cloke, the Collingwood forward line looked more dangerous than it has all season. Witts also played an important role for the team up forward. Standing 208cm tall, he ensured that he took a key defender, which opened up space for Cloke and Reid. He also kicked two goals, had nine possessions and took 16 hitouts. Although his spot is not secure, it provided a blueprint for Buckley to play three key forwards.

Collingwood ranks second in the AFL for disposals. This stat has counted for little of late given the poor disposal efficiency the side has had this year. However, if Collingwood demonstrates the same level of skill as it did against Carlton, it should be able to run Adelaide off its feet.

Dane Swan – Yet again, Dane Swan responded to a poor game with a best on ground performance. He picked up 41 disposals against the Blues and was one of the key reasons why Collingwood was able to turn a slow start around. Although many have been critical of his form at stages this year, Swan still averages 31 disposals a game and just under four tackles. He is not kicking as many goals this year which is surprising considering he is spending more time up forward. Amazingly, no other Collingwood player has had over 40 possessions in a decade. Swan has managed this feat 12 times since 2003.

Luke Ball – Ball has made a huge difference since returning to the side. He sets the standard for tackling and averages 24 disposals a game which is a great effort considering he is coming off a knee reconstruction last season. He is also averaging seven tackles a game which is so important considering the side was lacking intensity before he returned to the side. His 24 disposals against Carlton last round were so hard fought. He is the heartbeat of the Collingwood midfield and will have a huge job squaring off against Scott Thompson this round.

Andrew Krakouer – Although not as prolific on the scoreboard as we have become accustomed to, Krakouer made a huge difference to the side last round with his polished ball use. The Magpies have really struggled to hit targets going forward this season, but you knew last Friday night that something good would happen whenever Krakouer had the ball in his hands. His defensive efforts were also high and he still managed to kick a goal as reward for his efforts. With key targets like Cloke, Witts and Reid up forward, Krakouer is the missing link as he is an extremely clean crumber and is very smart with his positioning. The Magpies need him to play consistent footy for the rest of the season.

Focus on Adelaide
The Crows have been disappointing on a number of counts this year. In particular, they aren’t moving the ball with the same speed and direction as they did in 2012. Tackling remains an issue, whilst the midfield is not playing with the same dominance either. A lot comes down to the departure of Kurt Tippett and the season ending injury of Taylor Walker. No side in the AFL could perform without its two key forwards, and Adelaide is no exception. That said, the departure of Kurt Tippett has opened up spots for Jenkins, Lynch and McKernan, and all have showed signs this season.

Although injuries should not be used as an excuse, the Crows have had to use their substitute very early in the game for the last two weeks in a row. It has really restricted Sanderson’s ability to keep his midfield rotations up. The other issue for Sanderson is the form of Sam Jacobs who hasn’t matched his 2012 form which saw him become the most dominant tap ruckman in the competition. His lack of impact is having a flow on effect on the Crows midfielders.

Brad Crouch – A real positive to come out of this season has been the emergence of Brad Crouch. Similar to Gold Coast’s Jaeger O’Meara, Crouch was selected in the 2011 draft but was unavailable to play until this season. His last two rounds in particular have been really impressive, picking up 31 and 26 disposals respectively. This is a huge achievement for a guy who has only played six games. He adds real depth to the Adelaide midfield and needs to be monitored by the Magpies this round.

Patrick Dangerfield – It’s hard to do a write-up on Adelaide without discussing Dangerfield. Sanderson has used him up forward, in the midfield and in defence this year. Sanderson would kill for two or three Dangerfields as he is so dominant even though he is usually very tightly tagged. It is very hard to see Collingwood finding a suitable match-up for him, with the only genuine tagger in the side being Brent Macaffer. However, I feel that Macaffer may not have the tank to go with him, and he played good footy as a half forward last round. Buckley may therefore opt to go head-to-head with Dangerfield as he did last year with Dale Thomas. Perhaps Dane Swan may go onto him in a dream match-up for the fans. Dangerfield is averaging 24 disposals and has kicked 21 goals so far this year.

Richard Douglas – Douglas is one of the in-form Adelaide players at the moment. He is averaging a goal a game from 23 disposals and has bounced back from a difficult 2012 season. He is a very hard runner and sneaks under the radar quite often. He also adds great leadership.

The Wrap Up
Expect a very fired up Adelaide side this Friday night considering the result will be critical to its final chances. All recent matches between the two sides have gone down to the wire, with the last three results at the MCG determined by four, five and three points respectively.

Both sides have star-studded midfielders, with Swan, Pendlebury and Dangerfield all ranking in the top 10 for AFL Player Ratings in 2013.
I just get the feeling that Collingwood’s defence and forward line is a little more settled at the moment. It will be interesting to see whether Buckley uses Reid forward, or uses him as a Plan B if the Magpies need a boost.

If Collingwood moves the ball as quickly as it did last week, I can’t see Adelaide keeping up. However, the Crowd have been competitive in most games this year and will take some beating. Buckley has been demanding consistency from his side for some time, and the Magpies get their chance to capitalise on the important win last round.

Pies by 22

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86