In 2016, David Natoli, aka DaVe86, returns to Collingwood Media to file his famous, in-depth tactical match previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

Collingwood faces its arch rival Carlton for the second time this year on Saturday night at the MCG.

Although Collingwood and Carlton currently sit in 14th and 13th respectively on the ladder, the year has been vastly different for both these sides. Most pundits would agree that Carlton has exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, while Collingwood has significantly underachieved.

Nonetheless, Collingwood returned from its bye round last week and played really well, beating Fremantle by 48 points. The bye came at a perfect time for Collingwood, and fans will be hoping for better results in the second half of the season.

Carlton, on the other hand, was soundly beaten by Greater Western Sydney. Although the margin was ugly, the truth is that Carlton played decent football right up until the last quarter, before the Giants took full control of the match. I think it was more a reflection on how good the Giants are, as opposed to a reflection on Carlton’s form.

Ladder position is rarely relevant when these two sides meet, and there is no greater rivalry in AFL football than when Collingwood plays Carlton. Even though finals are probably out of the question for either team, both clubs will be keen to notch up as many wins as possible in the second half of the year. Collingwood, in particular, won’t want to lose to Carlton twice in the one season, while the Blues will be keen to inflict another nail in Collingwood’s 2016 campaign.

Recent History
These sides last met in round seven this season, and it was Carlton who took the chocolates, winning by 15 points. It was the first victory for Carlton against Collingwood since round 15, 2012.

Bryce Gibbs was the standout performer for Carlton with 30 disposals and three goals and was deemed best on ground. Levi Casboult and Andrejs Everitt also booted three goals, while Kade Simpson did as he pleased off half back with 31 disposals.

For Collingwood, Scott Pendlebury led the charge with 34 disposals, while Alex Fasolo was Collingwood’s best player with four goals. Darcy Moore also hit the scoreboard with three majors of his own.

At the Selection Table
It will be an interesting week at selection for Collingwood, with a number of key players on the cusp of recall following injury layoffs. The biggest talking point will surround Darcy Moore. To fit Moore into the side means questions will be asked of the forward set up. Would Travis Cloke, Jesse White or Mason Cox hold their spots. It is unlikely Cox will be dropped as he plays the valuable back-up ruck role. Cloke also contributed well last week and would be terribly unlucky to be dropped again, which could put pressure on White to retain his spot. It may be that Moore needs to regain touch at VFL level, but if he does come in for Cloke then it would be the third time this season the power forward has been dropped.

In other news, Alex Fasolo will receive a fitness test, but is likely to miss at least another game, while Taylor Adams is also edging closer to his return but is also likely to miss another week or two. Tim Broomhead should return to VFL level after recovering from his ankle injury. There is also plenty of depth to select if required after Collingwood’s VFL team enjoyed its fifth straight victory, with Rupert Wills, Tyson Goldsack, Jack Frost, Jarrod Witts and Brent Macaffer all contributing heavily to the win. But regardless, I feel it’s unlikely that Collingwood will make too many changes to the side that won against Fremantle last week.

Carlton’s injury list is relatively minor, but it is still missing skipper Marc Murphy for at least another three weeks, and Dennis Armfield for another two. Plenty of hype continues to build over Jack Silvagni, who again impressed at VFL level booting two goals. Matthew Dick was one of Carlton’s best performers at VFL level last week with 33 possessions, as was Dylan Buckley. Silvagni is the most likely of those players to be selected, as his much-anticipated debut is surely drawing closer.

Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood was really good last week in miserable conditions. If anything, the conditions played into Collingwood’s hands as it forced the Magpies to go back to the basics. Although it was at times a sloppy game, Collingwood’s disposal efficiency of 75 per cent was pleasing. The Magpies also had 28 more inside 50s, 16 more contested possessions, 40 more marks, seven more marks inside 50, 13 more tackles inside 50 and were dominant around stoppages. These are all areas that Collingwood has struggled in this year, so the bye round obviously worked wonders.

Importantly, Collingwood’s defence looked really good. Ben Reid has been in blistering form, and is now well complimented by Jonathon Marsh and Jeremy Howe who are both good intercept marks. The additions of Nathan Brown and Marley Williams have also stabilised the defence, and it is all of a sudden looking like a solid unit for the first time this season. It’s essential for the Magpies that these players stay fit so a consistent backline can be selected each week.

Player Focus – Collingwood
Jonathon Marsh – After a difficult game against Melbourne, Marsh responded well with a terrific game against Fremantle last week. At 193cm, he is a perfect height for a modern day defender and has the ability to play on a variety of opponents. We all know he has amazing pace and can break a game open, but his kicking skills have often let him down. Last week however, he had 17 disposals at 100 per cent efficiency, which is a really good sign that this area of his game is improving. He’s still only 20 years old and has played only seven games in his career, so the future looks really bright. Hopefully he can cement his spot in the side in the remainder of this year, and become a fixture of the Collingwood backline.

Brodie Grundy – There was a bit of pressure on Grundy last week, given the fact that Collingwood’s ruck division was well beaten by Max Gawn the week prior, and Jarrod Witts has been in stellar VFL form. Grundy responded brilliantly against Fremantle, and it was arguably his best game for the season. He dominated hitouts in the first half and set up the victory with his aggressive tap work. Although Fremantle’s ruck division was weakened, the important thing is that Grundy took control and the Magpies were able to capitalise on his good work. It is a bigger challenge this week though against Matthew Kreuzer.

Tom Phillips – In his first season at Collingwood, Tom Phillips has made quite a mark. It all started in his very first training session where he beat Steele Sidebottom in the 2km time trial. From that point, I knew Phillips was a player to keep an eye on. His form steadily improved at VFL level and he has deservedly earned his spot in the senior team. It was a breakout game for Phillips last week, with 19 disposals and a goal. He is a beautiful size for a midfielder, is very clean with his ball use and obviously has great endurance. He is definitely one to watch.

Focus on Carlton
There is no doubt that Brendon Bolton has brought a lot of the trademarks of the Hawthorn style of play to Carlton. In general, the Blues have been really impressive this year and are quite an exciting team to watch. Carlton has been competitive in most games this year, and has surprised many to have won six games in the first half of the season. If the Blues win this week, they even the ledger at seven wins and seven losses, which would be a great achievement considering they were wooden spooners last season.

Having said that, Carlton has lost its previous two games convincingly, so will want to turn this form around quickly. The Blues have also struggled in centre clearances, ranking last in the competition, as well as ranking last in the competition for contested possession. These are surprising statistics given the midfield has talent, including contested possession machine Patrick Cripps. The Blues still also have their woes up forward, only kicking more than 100 points on two occasions this season. They have only averaged 70 points in the previous two rounds and are ranked 17th for points scored this season.

Carlton’s biggest improvement this year however has been defensively. Its backline on paper is really strong and has a lot of potential. The additions of Lachie Plowman and Jacob Weitering have given fans plenty to get excited about for the future. Sam Docherty, Kade Simpson and Zac Tuohy have also been really good as attacking defenders. Carlton will also celebrate Andrew Walker’s 200th game this week.

Player Focus – Carlton
Sam Docherty – Docherty made his mark last season, but has continued his stellar form in 2016. At this rate, he should make the All-Australian team, such has been his consistency this season. He was Carlton’s best player last week with 30 disposals, and has averaged over 25 disposals a game this season. Docherty has a rare ability to read the game and take intercept marks, and is also a very attacking player off half-back. He has quickly become one of Carlton’s best players.

Bryce Gibbs – After a difficult 2015 season, Gibbs is now in career best form and is another that is surely in All-Australian contention. With Murphy out of the side, Gibbs is now attracting the number one tag. As a result, his output had dropped off prior to the bye, but he was able to shake off the Coniglio tag last week to pick up 29 disposals and take 9 tackles. Gibbs is such a damaging player as he rarely misses a target, and at his best also pushes forward to kick goals, having kicked 12 so far this season.

Kade Simpson – At 32 years old, Simpson is enjoying one of his best seasons to date. The ever reliable back flanker is averaging 26 disposals and is pushing higher up the ground to get involved. He is a consistent user of the ball, and his experience is so valuable for the young defence. When these sides last met, Simpson ran amok, amassing 31 disposals.

The Wrap Up
If Collingwood wins this game, it has the opportunity to leapfrog Carlton on the ladder and regain bragging rights. Carlton has been a difficult team to play against this year, and is moving the ball really well. It means the Magpies will need to defend like they did last week, as the Blues can be a really damaging team if allowed to play on their terms.

It will be an intriguing midfield battle to see the likes of Gibbs and Cripps go head to head against Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Treloar, and the battle of the midfield is going to be as important as ever. If Grundy can get on top of Kreuzer in the ruck, then it is going to be difficult for Carlton to kick a winning score considering it relies so heavily on its midfield to generate its goals.

Collingwood will believe its talls can get on top up forward, however Carlton’s backline is very underrated. The Magpies need to prevent the Blues taking too many intercept marks, and also need to be mindful of the likes of Simpson, Docherty and Tuohy. Collingwood’s forward pressure has been inconsistent all season, but was really good last week.

Collingwood will have received a confidence boost from the win last week, and I think it will carry this momentum into Saturday’s game. If the Magpies bring their A-game this week, it should be enough to get them over the line.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86