Collingwoodfc.com.au has enlisted David Natoli aka DaVe86 to write this year's match previews.  David writes what are arguably, the most popular Magpie previews published on the internet.  This is his second season writing for the club website.  Please note his views are not of the clubs but of a passionate, knowledgeable member of the Magpie Army.

The round three match of the round is at the MCG this Friday night between traditional rivals Collingwood and Carlton. There are certain matches every year that I look forward to that little bit more, and this match is certainly one. There is no rivalry quite like the Collingwood and Carlton one and this year’s clash is a battle between first and second on the ladder. To add to the rivalry this week, Collingwood will be unveiling its premiership flag in front of a capacity crowd. Undoubtedly, it is going to be a party atmosphere for all Magpies fans and all will take great pleasure in displaying it in front of thousands of Carlton fans. However, it does provide the Blues with an added incentive to play well and spoil the party.

Irrespective of the bitter rivalry, the game does carry significant importance. The winner will sit on top of the table and remain undefeated across the opening three rounds.

I think it is particularly important for Carlton who is fighting to announce itself as a genuine contender in 2011. The club has boldly declared the intention of winning two premierships in the next five years. When this statement was read on The Footy Show, the majority of the audience broke out into laughter.

It is clear the football public does not consider the Blues the genuine article just yet and therefore a win against the benchmark side of the competition would really begin to change this perception.

The good news for football fans is that the game will also be broadcast live into Melbourne on Channel 7. It will start at 7:50. You would also expect a bumper crowd, with the majority of the 65,000 Collingwood members coming out in force this Friday night. The weather forecast is also good. I’m expecting upwards of 85,000 fans.

It will also be interesting to see the impact Gavin Brown has at the Blues. He was vital in developing Collingwood’s younger players and was privy to all of Malthouse’s game plans. Therefore, he will bring a lot of trade secrets to Carlton and this could give a significant edge.

On the flip side, Collingwood snared former Carlton player/coach Matthew Lappin who will also bring a few secrets to the table this week.

Such a blockbuster game deserves a blockbuster preview, and that’s what I aim to provide this week. So let’s get into it.

The Formline
Both sides are coming off two convincing wins to open the season.

Collingwood in particular has looked almost invincible to date and nearly machine like in the manner it has destroyed its opponents. Carlton is backing up from a 119 demolition job of the Gold Coast Suns which has served as a massive percentage boost.

However, there is the perception that neither side has been truly challenged yet. Collingwood’s first two wins came against Port Adelaide and North Melbourne, both underwhelming on the day. Carlton was dominant against Richmond in round one in all areas other than the scoreboard due to terrible accuracy from set shots. They could consider last week’s game against the Gold Coast as no more than a training run.

There is the school of thought that such an easy and bruise-free game will act as a hindrance to Carlton in terms of preparation for the match against Collingwood who is clearly playing at the highest intensity of any club going around at the moment. I think Port Adelaide experienced this after playing GWS in its final practice match and then facing the Magpies in round one. I’m sure Brett Ratten will be putting his players through an intense week of training in preparation for Friday night’s game.

Collingwood has also had a bruise free opening to the year and will also have to lift their intensity against a fired up Carlton side. It would be a concern for Mick Malthouse to see both Port Adelaide and North Melbourne pierce the zone at times over the last two rounds. It has been an irregular occurrence, however it will provide opponents with some hope that the Collingwood structures can be penetrated.

Recent History
Collingwood has won the previous three encounters against Carlton quite convincingly. The last clash was in round 18 last year where the Magpies ran out 48 point victors. Pendlebury polled the three votes with a 34 possession and seven-tackle game, whilst Didak polled the two votes with 31 possessions and two goals. Dayne Beams took the one vote with three goals along with 28 disposals. Kade Simpson was Carlton’s best with 33 disposals.

The prior encounter in 2010 was in round six, Collingwood again won convincingly by 53 points. Chris Judd was voted best on ground with 37 disposals, whilst Swan could’ve considered himself unlucky not to get the three votes with his 31 disposals and eight tackles. Luke Ball polled the one vote with a rare three-goal game. O’Hailpin kicked five goals for the game, whilst Betts, Murphy and Chris Dawes all kicked three as well.

At the Selection Table
Despite such smashing victories last week, expect both sides to make one or two changes. Both sides will particularly be bolstered by significant inclusions to the defence.

Carlton look set to regain their best full back Michael Jamison from suspension. Paul Bower will also push for selection for his first game of the year after an injury interrupted start. Carlton has looked short in defence to open the year, but has been fortunate to come up against second rate attacks. They will need their best two defenders this week against a Collingwood forward line which is basking in terrific form from its twin towers Cloke and Dawes.

Simon White is likely to be the player to make way for Jamison. If Bower is declared fit, then Matthew Watson is potentially the other player to be omitted. It would be a tough call on Watson who had a good debut last week. However, the opposition was second rate and he will not be physically big enough to match Cloke or Dawes.

Turning to Collingwood, and the Magpies look set to regain their skipper Nick Maxwell who is returning from a kidney injury sustained in the NAB Cup. It was thought he would probably miss at least another week, but there seems little chance Maxwell will miss the unveiling of the premiership flag this round. Leon Davis will also come into contention after he was best afield in the VFL on the weekend.

Finding room for both is near impossible, but expect Malthouse to swing a few changes over the next month to ensure the depth in the list is kept fresh. Simon Buckley was good against North Melbourne, but seems the most likely candidate to make way for Maxwell. Brent Macaffer was also far from disappointing, but still looks far from full match fitness and may make way for Davis.

Again, Lachlan Keeffe will come into contention to perhaps play on Shaun Hampson who has been too big for his opponents to date.

Where this game will be won
In 2011, it is clear that the midfield has become more vital than ever. All sides are looking to gain the ascendency through the middle, and then aiming to lock the ball in their own forward half. The midfield battle will be crucial this week as Carlton’s midfield is clearly its strength. The Blues forward and backline still have question marks over them, so if they are any hope of winning they need to get on top through the middle. I have been impressed with the increased depth through Carlton’s midfield this year as well.  Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs have really started the year well, whilst rookie Ed Curnow has added a lot as an in and under midfielder.

Collingwood also possesses a star-studded midfield, and it is also far more disciplined and battle hardened. Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury are the two leading disposal winners in the AFL to date, whilst Dale Thomas continues to impress.

The real area of concern for all of Collingwood’s opponents this year is the fact that Chris Dawes and Travis Cloke have improved. Cloke shares the lead on top of the goal-kicking table with seven, whilst Dawes sits equal second with six. On the flip side, Cloke shares this lead with two Carlton players in Andrew Walker and Jeff Garlett who also have seven goals each for the year.

For Carlton to win this game, they need to be able to break the lines and get the ball in space. Last year, Collingwood was able to lock the ball inside 50 with ease and prevent the Blues from getting their running game going. Considering Carlton relies on their small forwards to kick a large chunk of their goals, they need to move the ball quickly. Otherwise, the Magpies will get numbers back and pick off the incoming ball with ease.

Potential Match-Ups & Player Notes

Carlton Forward Line:
Jarrad Waite v Chris Tarrant - I expect Waite to play forward as it gives Carlton its best structure and he will draw an opponent towards him unlike other Carlton forwards can. Tarrant is his best match-up due to his agility and speed off the mark. Size-wise it is also an even battle.

Shaun Hampson v Ben Reid - Hampson has been impressive to date acting as a back-up ruckman and tall forward. His strength and aerobic capacity will worry Ben Reid. However, Hampson needs to be more consistent and clunk more marks. Then he needs to convert. Ben Reid continues to develop into one of the most valuable centre half backs in the competition and his booming left foot is becoming a real weapon in the Magpie defence.

Eddie Betts v Harry O’Brien - Collingwood has been using Simon Buckley on the dangerous small forwards and allowing Harry a bit more freedom. With Nick Maxwell back, expect Harry to go back to playing accountable football on dangerous small forwards, and there are none more dangerous than Eddie Betts. Betts missed the boat last week, only chipping in with two goals. He tends to play his best on the big stage however.

Jeff Garlett v Alan Toovey - Garlett is fast becoming one of the most underrated players in the competition. He would be my tip for the quickest player in the competition as well, and he has kicked seven goals in two weeks (five coming last week). Toovey is probably Collingwood’s fastest and tightest checking defenders so is likely to get this vital match-up.

X-Factor - Heath Shaw - Shaw is playing devastating football at the moment, and has relished the opportunity to take extra responsibility in the absence of Maxwell. He was subbed in the third quarter last week so will be fresh and firing. He always lifts for big games as well.

X-Factor - Andrew Walker - A fit and firing Andrew Walker has really been the missing link for the Carlton side. He is playing without any strapping on his shoulders and is relishing playing a small forward role. He has also really improved his goal-kicking accuracy as well, which has been a criticism throughout his career to date. I also expect him to lift for the big game. Expect him to play on Heath Shaw and aim to make him accountable, whilst also trying to snag a few goals.

Midfield
Dane Swan v Andrew Carrazzo - Swan has started 2011 in devastating form and continues to run around as if no opponent is near him. Carrazzo tagged Ablett last week with great success, and I think he’ll ask for the Swan match-up this week. He is the only player with the aerobic capacity to keep with Swan. Carrazzo attempted to tag Swan last year and started well, however was eventually burnt off. It is critical for Carlton to get on top in the middle so this match-up will be crucial.

Scott Pendlebury v Bryce Gibbs - Despite Pendlebury’s dominant opening two rounds, I expect Ratten to use Gibbs head to head against the Magpies champion. Gibbs has been equally dominant and is relishing his permanent midfield role this year. It would be a fascinating battle between two stars of the game in great form.

Chris Judd v Ben Johnson - Although Judd polled three votes against Collingwood last year, I felt as if he was far from his best in both games. His 37 disposals against the Magpies in round six were all under pressure and his disposal efficiency was well down. He was also well held with only seventeen disposals in round eighteen. Judd has again started the year in good form and will get better as the year goes on. I expect Ben Johnson to get the job around the ground, with Luke Ball going head to head around stoppages. Although most of the hype has surrounded Swan and Pendlebury, I actually think Ben Johnson has been the highlight of the opening two rounds for Collingwood. He has been dominant playing on an opponent and generating a lot of run. He has been responsible for Pearce and Harvey in the opening two rounds.

Marc Murphy v Sharrod Wellingham - I’ve tipped Murphy to really establish himself as a champion this year and his start to the year has not disappointed. He has had 67 disposals to date (ranking fourth in the AFL) and looks fitter than ever. Wellingham on the other hand has been slightly underwhelming to date, so Malthouse may elect to play him on a dangerous opponent and play defensively to regain his touch.

Luke Ball v Ed Curnow - Luke Ball continues to go about his business and has had an impressive start to the year. He is probably going to square off against Curnow who has already made a real name for himself since been promoted off the rookie list and dominating in his opening two games.

X-Factor: Dale Thomas - I still think Daisy has one more step to go before he is considered amongst the competitions elite. That is probably going to require him to kick a few more goals. However, whilst Swan and Pendlebury continue to dominate, Thomas remains one of the most damaging players in the competition and rarely gets a tight tag. This is the sort of stage he likes as well. He’ll always lift for a blockbuster.

X-Factor: Kade Simpson - Simpson probably missed the party a bit last week against the Gold Coast only picking up fifteen disposals. Nonetheless, he is vitally important for Carlton this week as he breaks the lines and is capable of kicking goals. Carlton need to get their running game going, and Kade Simpson is typically a catalyst of this when they are playing their best footy.

Collingwood Forward Line
Travis Cloke v Michael Jamison - It is Jamison’s first game back so he’ll be given the huge task of playing on an in-form Cloke who is coming off a five goal game against the Kangaroos. Jamison is such a vital player for Carlton, so they will be strengthened by his return. However, I question whether he will have the strength to play on Cloke and also whether he’ll match him around the ground. Jamison is typically more at home when in defence. Stopping Collingwood’s twin towers will be essential and Jamison holds the key for Carlton.

Chris Dawes v Paul Bower/Matthew Watson - If Bower is unable to play, then Watson is probably going to get the big job on Dawes. He’ll be far too raw for Dawes, so Carlton will be sweating on the availability of Bower. Otherwise, Waite may have to go into defence which is not what Ratten will want. Dawes has taken his game to the next level this year. He has increased confidence, is fitter and his accuracy in front of goals is impressive. He is on track for a sixty goal year. Bower will also be a tad undersized to play on Dawes, but is clearly Carlton’s best option.

Alan Didak v Jordan Russell - Didak is gradually running into full fitness and good form after an injury-interrupted pre-season. He is not getting a lot of midfield time at the moment and is mainly staying forward, so expect Russell to get the gig. Russell is also sneaking under the radar a bit and continues to be a good accumulator of the football. His decision making has also improved. However, he’ll have to play tight on Didak this week and his disposal will be under the spotlight against the intensity of the Collingwood forward press.

Andrew Krakouer v Dennis Armfield - Both players started as the sub last week, so I would expect them to get full games in round three. It will be unlikely coaches will use the same player as the sub two weeks in a row in an effort to maintain their fitness. Krakouer has already added so much to the Collingwood side, and I have been particularly impressed by his disposal efficiency. He is so crafty in congested situations and especially around goals. He had twelve disposals and a goal in around a quarter of footy last week.

Steele Sidebottom v Nick Duigan - Sidebottom has had a good start to the year, but I expect him to take his game to a new level against quality opposition. Duigan has been an impressive find for Carlton and is adding a lot of run out of half back.

X-Factor: Dayne Beams - Beams is slipping right under the radar at the moment and tearing teams to shreds. He kicked three goals last week from twenty six disposals. Along with Steele Sidebottom, both are providing a real goal-scoring options for the Magpies and are a real credit to the depth in the Collingwood side. He kicked three goals against Carlton last year as well so could be a difference again this week. May find himself matched up to Scotland.

X-Factor: Chris Yarran - Yarran has moved to half back over the pre-season and is looking extremely fit. However, his opening round was terrible, only picking up four disposals and was totally smashed by White. Nonetheless, he bounced back last week against Gold Coast and showed how dangerous he can be running off half back. He’ll be vital this week as Carlton require more run out of defence to beat the Pies. Yarran is one of those players that could break a line, which in turn will spread the Collingwood zone. Along with Duigan, the Blues have way more pace out of defence and a greater ability to generate run.

The Ruck: Jolly v Warnock
Jolly has had a quiet start to the year after a quiet pre-season. On the other hand, Warnock has been very impressive and is forming a very good partnership with Shaun Hampson. I also think Leigh Brown is still finding his best form and is giving away far too many free kicks to date. I expect Carlton to try and take ascendency in the ruck, but Jolly’s experience and ability to push forward will worry Warnock. Nonetheless, Warnock could be the difference for Carlton in 2011 as they have such a good midfield, so getting first use of the footy makes the Blue so much more dangerous.

The Wrap-Up
My nature is to be conservative; however I still think the Magpies are ahead of the Blues at this stage. No doubt Carlton is improving and closing the gap quickly. They will be looking at this game as a means of establishing themselves as a genuine contender. I just think the Magpies are still far stronger in defence, and will be too tall in attack. Regardless, if the Carlton midfield gets on top then they will worry Collingwood.

I wouldn’t write off the Blues, and I expect a really tight contest. However, when push comes to shove, I think Collingwood will be a bit too strong and that big game experience will shine through.

Collingwood by 18 points

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86

Ticket information for Friday night
The AFL wishes to advise that tickets for Friday’s round three match between Collingwood and Carlton, to be played at the MCG, are selling extremely strongly on a demand basis.

A limited number of seats remain available in the public section of the ground while standing room tickets are now on sale for AFL members.

The AFL is encouraging all fans to purchase a ticket in advance to avoid disappointment. Tickets are on sale through Ticketek on 132 849, at any Ticketek outlet on online at ticketek.com.au.

The MCC advises those attending the match to allow plenty of time to arrive at the stadium and to take public transport where possible. Public and AFL games will open at 5.30pm and the MCC Members Reserve will open at 5pm.