Collingwoodfc.com.au has enlisted David Natoli aka DaVe86 to write this year's match previews.  David writes what are arguably, the most popular Magpie previews published on the internet.  This is his second season writing for the club website.  Please note his views are not of the clubs but of a passionate, knowledgeable member of the Magpie Army.

After a thrilling ANZAC Day/Easter weekend of football, my attention turns quickly onto the round six clash between Collingwood and Western Bulldogs this Sunday at the MCG. Both sides played in terrific ANZAC Day matches last Monday, with Collingwood eventually outlasting Essendon and the Bulldogs going down in a thriller against Fremantle.

The Bulldogs need a big scalp. Their form against good sides over the last two years is underwhelming. This is compounded by the fact that it lost to Collingwood in all three encounters in 2010. It’s hard to decipher why the Doggies keep falling short against the better sides, but it could simply be a case whereby one big win installs the necessary self belief to take the next step.

On the other hand, things continue to travel along nicely for the Magpies. The ANZAC Day clash against Essendon was clearly Collingwood’s biggest test to date. However, as has been the case all year, the Magpies proved far fitter and ran out the game much stronger. Cloke in particular really lifted in the last quarter, and Dawes worked his way into the game. It was perhaps Collingwood’s best four-quarter performance to date, however there were still significant patches in the game where the Bombers were able to gain momentum.

In particular, Collingwood’s third-quarters have been questionable all season. Malthouse tried addressing this fact on ANZAC Day by bringing the side out earlier from the half-time break and going through a few drills. It didn’t work as Essendon kicked a goal within 20 seconds of the third-quarter starting. At this stage of the season, it is not a massive concern. However, it is a trend Malthouse will be keen to stamp out quickly.

If Gold Coast can win a game of football, then Collingwood will certainly lose one. So let’s get stuck into a bit of analysis and see whether the Bulldogs can cause an upset.

The form line
Collingwood still sits on top of the ladder, remaining undefeated after five rounds. There is a school of thought that the Magpies are yet to play a really good side. However, it’s impossible to play a side higher than you on the ladder when you sit at the top of it. Both Carlton and Essendon played really competitive football against the Magpies, yet still fell significantly short of victory. However, this is Collingwood’s first game of the season against one of last year’s top four sides, so is perhaps the biggest test to date.

With the bye in round four, the Bulldogs sit comfortably placed in ninth spot with two wins and two losses. However, the wins came against Gold Coast and Brisbane, so they were not significantly challenged in those matches. The losses have come to a red-hot Essendon and an inspired Fremantle over in Perth.

The loss to Fremantle has sparked a few questions. There was no disputing the effort put in by the players, yet it was still not enough to get across the line in a tight game. Nevertheless, the preparation was not ideal for Bulldogs who had consecutive easy games, followed by a bye. It was always going to be a big ask to travel across to Perth to play an in-form Fremantle following three weeks of bruise free football. There are no excuses this week however.

Recent history
As mentioned earlier, Collingwood played the Western Bulldogs three times in 2010 and won all three games. The last encounter was the qualifying final where the Magpies ran out 62 point winners. Dane Swan was everywhere, picking up 39 disposals and kicking 3 goals. Dale Thomas also proved himself as a finals player picking up 32.

However, the Bulldogs were without Cooney and Morris, whilst other significant players such as Higgins and Griffen were battling through injuries. Griffen nonetheless was his side’s best player with 32 disposals.

In the two encounters during the home-and-away season, Collingwood won by 10 and 36 points respectively. Swan was again prominent with 66 disposals across the two games, whille Didak kicked seven goals in total. Boyd however was probably the standout, picking up an astonishing 74 disposals across the two games and four Brownlow votes. Pendlebury, O’Brien and Davis were others who polled Brownlow votes.

Collingwood won all three battles because it was able to stifle the Bulldogs run across half back. It forced the Doggies into a lot of turnovers and also won all the major battles throughout the midfield.

At the selection table
Collingwood has a pretty clean bill of health and no major injury-concerns following the ANZAC Day weekend. Brad Dick was only given the last quarter to prove himself after he started the sub, so it may be questionable whether that was enough to hold down his spot for another week. Malthouse is very keen to give game-time to John McCarthy and his name will be floated again this week.
There is no doubt that Collingwood will continue to rotate players, so don’t be surprised to see a few younger players miss with ‘groin’ or ‘calf’ injuries over the next few weeks. Tyson Goldsack is also close to a recall, whilst Andrew Krakouer will probably go back to VFL level this week and try to fight his way back.

Life is a bit tougher down at the kennel. Barry Hall and Tom Williams look highly unlikely to play at this stage after they battled through injuries last weekend. Ben Hudson was almost heroic with his efforts against Sandilands, yet is clearly restricted with a sore ankle.

Jarrad Grant and Jordan Roughead haven’t impressed me to date but may get a reprieve due to the injuries to taller players in the side.

Liam Jones and Will Minson will come into contention this week, as will Giansiracusa if he passes a fitness test. Djerkurra, Moles and Addison are also chances to get the call-up. I’m keen to see Mitch Wallis get another game. He started as the sub on the weekend and was given limited game-time. I’d love to see him get a full game against a quality midfield to see where he is at.

Tactics, match-ups and player notes

Collingwood
The strategy this week for the Magpies will be very predictable. Malthouse knows that the Bulldogs can be a very damaging team by foot, and if they get their running game going they can trouble anyone. Therefore, the plan will be to put a lot of forward pressure to ensure the ball is locked in up forward, and to force a lot of stoppages.

Collingwood’s ball movement was slow against Essendon, and I thought the Magpies were forced to bomb it long far too often. No doubt the plan this week will be to spread a bit better and provide the forwards with better delivery.

Who’s hot? - Scott Pendlebury
Pendlebury was simply unbelievable last week against the Bombers. He won his second consecutive ANZAC medal, which underlies his value on the big stage and his emergence as an elite footballer. He played the perfect all-round game, picking up 34 disposals, 10 marks, 8 tackles and 3 goals.

He still sits second to Dane Swan in the competition for total disposals and would probably be ahead of him in the Brownlow count right now. It is a tough call whether to tag Pendlebury or Swan, but I think it has got to the stage where Pendlebury is just far too damaging by foot and needs to be stopped.

Player notes
Leon Davis - He played his best game for the season on ANZAC Day, picking up 28 possessions along with five tackles. The majority of his disposals came as a creative defender, where he was the focal point coming out of the backline. However, it was interesting to see him swung forward when the game was on the line where he also had a significant impact. It underlies his worth to the side that he can move anywhere on the ground now. As a defender, he has already shown that he is very good in marking contests and his tackling is good as well. He kept Jetta to one goal, although at times allowed him off the leash a little bit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the job on Sherman this week.

Darren Jolly - Although Essendon brought three ruckmen into the game, I thought Jolly was dominant with 34 hitouts and a goal. He would’ve felt fresh after a week off. There is no doubt Jolly remains one of the most valuable players in the Collingwood line-up, and for this reason I expect him to get a number or rests during the year to keep him fresh for finals.

Heath Shaw - He was again brilliant in a big game last weekend. He surprisingly found himself starting on the wing against Brent Stanton, which he himself admitted was not planned. He looked extremely comfortable there and was able to win 28 possessions, however I expect him to go back into defence this week.

Western Bulldogs
In order to penetrate the Collingwood zone, the Bulldogs need to back themselves and hit their targets. However, they can’t take overly reckless risks and need to match Collingwood around the stoppages. They may be without Barry Hall, so will likely take in a smaller forward line. This will mean that they have to spot up targets as opposed to bombing it long.

Who’s hot? - Matthew Boyd
The new Doggies skipper has been sensational this year and is coming off an astonishing 45 disposal game against Fremantle on ANZAC Day. He is averaging an impressive 34 disposals and five tackles. Typically, he is a very efficient user of the footy and rarely makes a mistake. He is also a fairly accountable player and genuinely beats his opponent when he goes head to head.

His work-rate his enormous and he was one of the only doggies players to perform against Collingwood last year. I expect him to get the match-up on Dane Swan this week.

Who’s not? - Adam Cooney
It is clear that Cooney had a limited pre-season and played very few practice games, however his form is just not good enough at the moment. He is still averaging 23.5 disposals a game which is far from poor, but he is not as damaging as we are used to seeing. He has only kicked two goals so far this year, which is also a concern as he is typically a goal-scoring midfielder. His accuracy in front of goals has also been poor and I thought he took a few blazing shots last week when he could’ve spotted up a target. He is facing the toughest of opponents this week, but the good news for him is that he is unlikely to get a tight tag. So it is a chance to turn his season around. He’ll likely go head-to-head with Wellingham.

Who need’s to lift? - Shaun Higgins
Higgins had a shocker of a first half last week against Fremantle. However, he came out in the second half and absolutely dominated. He got his side back into the game and finished up with 25 disposals and a goal. At his best, Higgins wins his own ball, has good pace and always uses it well. He is also a goal-kicker and rotates between the forward and backline. The Bulldogs need more of the Higgins from the second half if they are a chance this week. He is so close to breaking through as a genuine star of the competition, but he just needs to find consistency. He’ll most likely face Toovey or Shaw as an opponent this week.

Player  notes
Lukas Markovic - I’ll admit to knowing very little about Markovic before last week, but he really impressed me with his defensive work. With Hargrave and Wood out, and Lake still finding touch after an interrupted pre-season, Markovic has slotted in beautifully down back and looks a seasoned played already. He is 24 years old so has a very steady frame and he was rarely beaten in one-on-one contests on the weekend. He played on McPhee for most parts and did a reasonable job holding him to one goal. Eade put a lot of faith in him in the last quarter when he threw Lake up forward, which left Markovic exposed as the full back. It doesn’t get easier for him either as he’ll most likely get the job on Cloke this week, with Lake going onto Dawes.

Jarrad Grant - Grant is just not exciting me at the moment. He was quite good at times against Fremantle and his stats look good (He had 19 touches and kicked 2 goals), however I just feel that he hasn’t taken the big step that many expected he would. Barry Hall is struggling a bit and needs a buffer. At Grant’s height coupled with his agility and speed, he should be a handful for opponents. He was far too quiet against Gold Coast which was a concern considering he was playing on Hunt and his side were smashing its opposition. This week, the Doggies may be without Hall, meaning Grant could potentially be the main focal point up forward. He’ll probably get Reid or Tarrant as an opponent and he must show something.

Justin Sherman - Sherman was fantastic against Fremantle and really looks to have found a spot in the side following his move from Brisbane. He isn’t winning a lot of the ball, but is making every disposal count, kicking 4 goals last week. Sherman is the logical replacement for Akermanis and adds real zip to the forward-line which is much needed because the Bulldogs have lacked a genuine crumber. He’ll either face Davis, Toovey or Heath Shaw as an opponent this week.

The wrap-up
The question on everyone’s mind will be how the Bulldogs can go against a top team without Barry Hall. If he fails to pull up for the game, then the Doggies will have to be very clean by foot and will be reliant on smalls like Higgins and Sherman to kick the majority of the goals. However, it is a chance for the Bulldogs to share the load and they need to get more goals from Cooney and Griffen from the midfield.

It’s hard to go past the Magpies at the moment. Bulldogs don’t get enough exposure on the MCG and Collingwood will be playing its fourth straight game there, so they have a significant edge in that regards.

I also question whether the Western Bulldogs have enough goal-scoring options. Lake,  Morris and Markovic should do good jobs on the Collingwood tall forwards, however the Magpies have far more goal-kickers and are in much better form right now. I think the game will take similar shape to last week whereby the Bulldogs will challenge, but the Magpies will be far stronger and match fit at the end.

Collingwood by 27

By David Natoli
aka DaVe86